Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb285…bc50 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 410d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$524 (+7%) realized +$465 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$588per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$69
economics 23% +$229
politics 20% +$184
other 16% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +97.0% +78.3% 100% 100% +78.3%
≤30d 5 +20.5% +9.0% 60% 40% -11.4%
≤90d 7 +10.0% -0.5% 57% 43% -11.4%
all 9 +10.8% +0.3% 67% 56% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 56% -4.1%
10% -9.3% 33% -13.3%
15% -18.1% 22% -21.7%
20% -26.1% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$141 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized+$465
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage410d
Avg bet$588
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $500 $580 +$80 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,040 +$286 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,573 −$353 -22%
Will Julian Champagnie score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Spurs lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 06 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $71 −$70 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 27 $101 +$69 +68%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $1,601 +$229 +14%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $1,417 +$184 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $213 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $319 5h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $532 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $322 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $101 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $86 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $54 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $133 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $106 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $52 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $52 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.25 · official $1,109.25 (match) · 99 history records