Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb287…d991 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$189 (-6%) realized −$188 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$51
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$266
tech 15% +$63
other 13% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 30% -5.6%
≤30d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 31% -6.7%
≤90d 17 -9.0% -17.6% 53% 29% -15.7%
all 17 -9.0% -17.6% 53% 29% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 29% -15.7%
10% -25.5% 12% -23.7%
15% -32.7% 0% -31.1%
20% -39.3% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$58 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage76d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 67¢ 66¢ $198 $197 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $174 +$27 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 22 $110 +$5 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $185 −$11 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $251 +$36 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $144 +$6 +4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 16 $73 −$3 -4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $61 +$14 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $339 −$8 -2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $578 +$74 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $179 −$84 -47%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $114 +$37 +32%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $99 +$10 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $201 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $174 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $174 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $185 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $60 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $121 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $111 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $108 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $98 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $140 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 70¢ $150 6d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 67¢ $144 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $52 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $18 6d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $74 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $73 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $71 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $21 7d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $61 7d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $129 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.68 · official $196.68 (match) · 75 history records