Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb28a…834b weather 972 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate79%765W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$11
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$51
sports 1% −$40
other 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 436 -0.4% -9.9% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 967 -1.6% -10.9% 79% 1% -9.8%
all 967 -1.6% -10.9% 79% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses765 / 202
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)967 / 972
History coverage61d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 967 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 99¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on June 1 Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $49 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $86 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $32 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $21 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $32 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL No 100¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $77 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $38 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $81 30h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $32 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $11 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $17 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $24 32h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 32h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.84 · official $305.81 (match) · 2270 history records