Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb28a…6d4a crypto 1502 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,793 (-40%) realized −$3,789 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%662W / 881L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 158d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$441
finance 10% −$22
other 8% +$94
tech 7% −$4
sports 5% −$135
world 5% −$200
economics 2% −$10
politics 1% +$9
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -59.9% -63.7% 5% 5% -83.4%
≤30d 90 -58.4% -62.3% 8% 7% -80.4%
≤90d 846 -14.9% -23.0% 39% 37% -38.0%
all 1543 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 41% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 41% -21.8%
10% -26.4% 38% -29.3%
15% -33.5% 33% -36.1%
20% -40.1% 28% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$3,789
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses662 / 881
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1543 / 1502
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $120 $275 +$155 (+129%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 12¢ $39 $17 −$22 (-56%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-47%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $34 $7 −$27 (-78%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $7 −$6 (-47%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $5 −$46 (-91%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $40 $3 −$38 (-93%)
Will Christian Pulisic record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl” before September Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during conference with Putin on Au Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 6PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 7PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jun 27 $37 +$30 +82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 15? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 31? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 3PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 31 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 30? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $40 1h
Will Christian Pulisic record the most goal contributions at the 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $16 30h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $19 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $17 2d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Christian Pulisic record the most goal contributions at the 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Christian Pulisic record the most goal contributions at the 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Christian Pulisic record the most goal contributions at the 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $11 5d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.12 · official $369.19 (match) · 3500 history records