Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb290…9a99 world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 23% −$7
politics 20% +$2
sports 17% +$4
economics 5% $0
weather 1% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 8% -9.1%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 2% -9.4%
all 78 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage527d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $82 +$9 +10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $55 −$5 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $47 −$3 -6%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $19 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $4 −$1 -24%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $13 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $13 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $49 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.86 · official $4.00 (match) · 322 history records