Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb291…55f6 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 22% $0
politics 13% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 6% -9.3%
all 55 -0.5% -9.9% 36% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage320d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $38 $0 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $86 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $24 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 24 $1 $0 -32%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 19 $25 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $38 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $38 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $30 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $31 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $27 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $10 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $9 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $23 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $6 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $28 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 12d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records