Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb294…a9f4 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$168 (-4%) realized −$177 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$136
14 days+$142
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$398
sports 41% −$616
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +56.6% +41.7% 100% 100% +46.8%
≤30d 7 -9.2% -17.9% 57% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 52 -9.1% -17.7% 33% 29% -14.4%
all 52 -9.1% -17.7% 33% 29% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 29% -14.4%
10% -25.6% 25% -22.6%
15% -32.8% 17% -30.1%
20% -39.4% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$46 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage49d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals No 80¢ 80¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 25¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $49 +$11 +23%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $85 +$26 +31%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists Jun 21 $85 +$99 +116%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots Jun 11 $89 +$6 +7%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? May 23 $98 −$41 -42%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $87 −$85 -97%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $165 +$121 +73%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $103 +$56 +55%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $90 +$19 +21%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $58 +$57 +98%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Paysandu SC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $73 +$20 +28%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $14 $0 -1%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 12 $92 +$47 +52%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $24 −$23 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $56 −$7 -13%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $81 −$2 -2%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $169 −$47 -28%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 10 $70 +$20 +28%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $45 +$24 +53%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $24 +$151 +642%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $93 −$91 -98%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $92 −$90 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $149 −$59 -40%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $87 −$31 -35%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $53 −$2 -4%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $152 −$39 -26%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $153 −$50 -33%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $94 −$38 -40%
Club Blooming vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 May 08 $88 +$7 +7%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $37 −$36 -98%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? May 07 $87 −$50 -58%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $87 −$86 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $88 +$539 +609%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $86 −$84 -98%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $78 −$57 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $201 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 81¢ $49 4h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $85 24h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $184 41h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists BUY Yes 45¢ $85 42h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 46h
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots SELL No 55¢ $95 11d
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots BUY No 50¢ $89 11d
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 29d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 29d
Will Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $57 29d
Will Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $98 30d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 30d
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $87 31d
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $286 32d
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 47¢ $165 32d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $159 33d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 33d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 33d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $108 36d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 36d
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 37d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 27¢ $116 37d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $58 37d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 39d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $58 39d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $59 39d
Will Paysandu SC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 39d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 83¢ $93 39d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.87 · official $218.87 (match) · 109 history records