Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb294…d781 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$6 (-21%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$16
sports 36% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% -30.8%
≤30d 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% -30.8%
≤90d 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% -30.8%
all 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 33% -30.8%
10% +2.5% 33% -37.4%
15% -7.4% 33% -43.5%
20% -16.5% 33% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+137%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 42h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 42h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.38 · official $1.09 · 7 history records