Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb296…cb8f crypto 68 markets active 6d ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,216 (-33%) realized −$3,216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$1,867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,857
crypto 30% −$298
politics 17% −$49
sports 10% −$806
world 4% −$55
economics 2% −$188
weather 1% +$2
tech 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +203.0% +174.2% 100% 100% +174.2%
≤30d 4 +50.4% +36.1% 50% 50% -70.8%
≤90d 4 +50.4% +36.1% 50% 50% -70.8%
all 68 -13.7% -22.0% 38% 34% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 34% -40.0%
10% -29.4% 28% -45.7%
15% -36.2% 26% -51.0%
20% -42.5% 22% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$131 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3,216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage580d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$30 +199%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $843 −$830 -98%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $177 +$316 +178%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,734 −$1,384 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 13 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 13 $170 +$72 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 12 $100 −$23 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 12 $120 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 12 $100 +$79 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 12 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 10 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 10 $150 −$52 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 10 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 10 $200 −$119 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 10 $200 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 10 $127 −$73 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$103 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 09 $100 −$70 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 09 $200 −$71 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 09 $102 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 09 $100 −$34 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 09 $100 +$81 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 09 $100 +$94 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$1 -49%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $215 +$83 +39%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $159 +$6 +4%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Feb 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 7+ times during meetings with Slo Jan 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard Academy vs Tricked (BO3) Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Afri Dec 11 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $4 $0 -5%
Valorant: T1 vs Fnatic (BO5) Dec 07 $93 +$12 +13%
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? Dec 05 $200 +$25 +13%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Nov 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6? May 06 $142 −$142 -100%
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance) May 06 $49 −$23 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on May 1? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6? May 06 $142 −$142 -100%
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? Apr 30 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29? Apr 29 $110 −$26 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $15 6d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $843 17d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 99¢ $494 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 7¢ $351 17d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 35¢ $177 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,734 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $100 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $242 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $170 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $77 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $100 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $100 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $179 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $196 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $50 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $98 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $150 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $100 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $81 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $200 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $163 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $100 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $63 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $100 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.59 · official $46.59 (match) · 368 history records