trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -81.8% | -83.5% | 9% | 9% | +37.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -16.8% | -24.7% | 23% | 23% | +64.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -16.8% | -24.7% | 23% | 23% | +64.5% |
| all | 14 | +43.4% | +29.8% | 29% | 29% | +70.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +29.8% | 29% | +70.7% |
| 10% | +17.4% | 29% | +54.4% |
| 15% | +6.0% | 29% | +39.5% |
| 20% | -4.4% | 29% | +25.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 41¢ | 50¢ | $20 | $25 | +$5 (+23%) |
| Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026? | No | 45¢ | 36¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-18%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-42%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 28¢ | $10 | $5 | −$5 (-47%) |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | Yes | 22¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-92%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Denmark record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Jun 19 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 7000 (HIGH) in Q1 2026? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| North Korea missile launch by February 14? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? | Jun 19 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $69 | +$69 | +100% |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%? | May 22 | $5 | +$28 | +564% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 22 | $10 | +$12 | +117% |
| Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? | Dec 27 | $1 | +$8 | +826% |