Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb29c…8aca sports 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,787 (+1%) realized +$3,700 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%196W / 48L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,060per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8,388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$509
7 days+$154
14 days+$867
30 days+$2,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$2,952
finance 20% +$797
other 8% −$50
crypto 6% +$79
world 6% −$281
politics 2% −$2
tech 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -12.9% -21.2% 64% 11% -9.3%
≤30d 201 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 14% -8.1%
≤90d 244 -1.8% -11.1% 80% 13% -8.3%
all 244 -1.8% -11.1% 80% 13% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 13% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 6% -17.1%
15% -27.4% 4% -25.1%
20% -34.5% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,332) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$59 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$8,388
Realized+$3,700
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses196 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions6
Markets (closed)244 / 250
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,060
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,061 +$61 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,962 $1,977 +$15 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $1,820 $1,750 −$70 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $920 $994 +$74 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 92¢ $920 $925 +$5 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $605 $605 +$1 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $196 +$14 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $736 +$7 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $54 −$34 -63%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6,201 −$294 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 20 $1,956 +$34 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 20 $465 −$465 -100%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,008 −$11 -0%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,936 +$2 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$48 +95%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,071 +$10 +0%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $226 +$2 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $92 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $987 +$13 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,227 +$28 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $919 +$81 +9%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,817 +$98 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $850 +$50 +6%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $451 +$9 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $663 +$29 +4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $746 +$8 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $229 +$8 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $4,165 +$235 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1,263 +$80 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 18 $2,001 +$5 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$80 -78%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,648 +$152 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $630 +$33 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $950 +$49 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $182 −$102 -56%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,900 +$50 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4 $0 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,226 +$77 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $451 −$292 -65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 +$40 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $502 +$67 +13%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 7m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $43 33m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 39m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 50m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 51m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $87 51m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 53m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $191 53m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $46 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $209 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $736 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $83 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $99 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $14 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $9 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $4 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $4 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 4¢ $0 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 4¢ $2 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 4¢ $8 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 4¢ $2 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $8 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $8 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $0 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $2 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,388.15 · official $8,388.16 (match) · 1247 history records