Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb29d…25f5 crypto 405 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%399W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$21
14 days−$3
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$48
finance 8% +$10
other 8% −$15
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 236 +0.7% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 405 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -9.0%
all 405 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -9.0%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$18 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses399 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)405 / 405
History coverage73d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 405 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $4 36h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1907 history records