Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb29f…45b5 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+1%) realized +$2,817 · open −$2,638
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,178per market
Trades / day57.5pace
Fees−$250est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$7,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$4,924
other 39% −$2,638
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -45.4% -50.6% 25% 25% -37.6%
≤30d 4 -45.4% -50.6% 25% 25% -37.6%
≤90d 4 -45.4% -50.6% 25% 25% -37.6%
all 4 -45.4% -50.6% 25% 25% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.6% 25% -37.6%
10% -55.3% 25% -43.6%
15% ← realistic here -59.6% 25% -49.0%
20% -63.6% 25% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
27.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,930 vs −$3,618 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7,321
Realized+$2,817
Unrealized−$2,638
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$250
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5,178
Trades / day57.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $9,960 $7,321 −$2,638 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $5,000 −$4,963 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $2,890 −$2,890 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $5,000 +$5,930 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $135 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3,054 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $208 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $198 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $289 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,000 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,000 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $130 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $370 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $156 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,741 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 45¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 45¢ $823 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 44¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,321.49 · official $7,711.97 · 141 history records