Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a3…09b8 sports 892 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-1%) realized −$238 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate72%637W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day59.4pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$211
14 days−$225
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$240
other 12% −$113
crypto 11% −$90
world 1% −$38
politics 1% −$16
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -3.2% -12.4% 73% 38% -15.5%
≤30d 539 -7.0% -15.9% 72% 29% -15.8%
≤90d 882 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 30% -11.9%
all 882 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 30% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 30% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 14% -20.3%
15% -30.4% 8% -28.0%
20% -37.2% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$238
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses637 / 245
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions7
Markets (closed)882 / 892
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day59.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 86¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? No 88¢ 86¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 62¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 66¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 20 $35 +$6 +18%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 20 $59 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Scotland to win the second half? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$2 +8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $18 −$8 -44%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +11%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 19 $2 $0 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2 +$1 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 $0 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on Jun 18 $10 −$8 -84%
England leading at halftime? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $80 +$7 +8%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $38 17m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $10 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $5 24m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $2 26m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $2 26m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $2 26m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $20 27m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $30 28m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $10 28m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 66¢ $5 28m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $9 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $1 1h
Sweden to win the second half? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 2h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 75¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 76¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 60¢ $2 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $20 20h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 94¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 20h
Scotland to win the second half? BUY No 90¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.01 · official $121.46 · 3500 history records