Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb2a4…cf8a sports 874 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$43,406 (+1%) realized +$44,646 · open −$1,240
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%462W / 399L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$3,355per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2,118est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$18,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$23,759
other 37% +$66,844
crypto 1% +$867
politics 1% +$170
world 0% +$942
economics 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 83% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 12 +2.8% -7.0% 92% 8% +16.1%
≤90d 121 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 40% -20.8%
all 861 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 42% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 42% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 40% -16.9%
15% -25.8% 37% -24.9%
20% -33.1% 33% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$4,378) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,046 vs −$3,412 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$18,142
Realized+$44,646
Unrealized−$1,240
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses462 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,118
Open positions13
Markets (closed)861 / 874
History coverage162d
Avg bet$3,355
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $4,413 $4,278 −$136 (-3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $3,044 $2,712 −$332 (-11%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $2,539 $2,479 −$60 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2,834 $1,778 −$1,056 (-37%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,661 $1,771 +$110 (+7%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,709 $1,762 +$53 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,347 $1,444 +$96 (+7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $1,002 $1,043 +$40 (+4%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $566 $589 +$23 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $194 $198 +$4 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $48 +$12 (+33%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Iraq? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $18 +$4 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Éderson: 5+ shots Jun 20 $30 −$15 -50%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists Jun 16 $201 +$3 +2%
Lucas Digne: 2+ assists Jun 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists Jun 16 $85 +$1 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ assists Jun 16 $246 +$2 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 5+ shots Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $509 +$8 +2%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $939 +$660 +70%
Will Emiliano Martínez be included in Argentina's official 2026 World May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lionel Messi be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup s May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lautaro Martínez be included in Argentina's official 2026 World C May 29 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $19,299 +$170 +1%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $2,000 +$2,103 +105%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4,700 +$3,730 +79%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026? Apr 18 $500 +$61 +12%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $1,584 −$1,584 -100%
Spread: CA Tigre (-1.5) Apr 17 $517 +$308 +60%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $1,724 +$2,848 +165%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 16 $1,358 −$1,358 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $140 +$264 +188%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3,857 +$994 +26%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 15 $2,359 −$2,359 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $1,714 +$279 +16%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 15 $2,702 +$4,284 +159%
Will Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $2,261 −$2,261 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $3,859 −$3,859 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $4,707 −$4,707 -100%
Spread: Blues (-1.5) Apr 14 $1,668 +$2,756 +165%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $6,876 −$6,876 -100%
Canucks vs. Ducks Apr 13 $2,772 −$2,772 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $5,153 −$5,153 -100%
Senators vs. Devils Apr 13 $2,658 −$2,658 -100%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 13 $1,781 −$1,781 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $2,005 +$794 +40%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 13 $2,554 +$4,362 +171%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $1,904 +$7,387 +388%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $13,807 +$3,348 +24%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $4,487 −$4,487 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Apr 12 $8,447 −$8,318 -98%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 12 $8,677 −$8,677 -100%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,411 +$902 +64%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2,708 +$2,659 +98%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Apr 12 $2,479 +$3,423 +138%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $3,341 −$3,341 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $22,022 −$22,022 -100%
Andreeva vs. Ruse: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 11 $2,066 −$2,066 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $10,989 +$8,370 +76%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $1,030 +$999 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 93¢ $42 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $24 21h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 95¢ $124 45h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 95¢ $78 45h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $469 45h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $204 45h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 93¢ $112 45h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 93¢ $200 45h
Éderson: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Éderson: 5+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Iraq? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $194 4d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $94 5d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 5d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $48 5d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $9 5d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $35 5d
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $10 5d
Lucas Digne: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $62 5d
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $62 5d
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $147 5d
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $19 5d
Marcus Thuram: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $23 5d
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $76 5d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $238 6d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $170 6d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $91 9d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $23 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,142.36 · official $18,142.36 (match) · 2786 history records