Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2a6…7708 sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,130 (+14%) realized +$1,130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,257
7 days−$817
14 days−$817
30 days−$817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$79
other 23% −$853
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$43
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+80.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +106.3% +86.7% 35% 33% -25.5%
≤30d 69 +99.4% +80.4% 35% 33% -25.5%
≤90d 69 +99.4% +80.4% 35% 33% -25.5%
all 69 +99.4% +80.4% 35% 33% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.4% 33% -25.5%
10% +63.1% 32% -32.6%
15% +47.4% 32% -39.1%
20% +32.9% 30% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +186% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$80 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 45
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage8d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,760 −$9 -0%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $301 −$300 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,426 −$1,400 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $458 −$449 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$64 +618%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$140 +275%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$54 +106%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 +$36 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $458 −$193 -42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,061 +$547 +52%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $17 −$7 -42%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $205 −$204 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $48 −$32 -67%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $72 +$228 +316%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$131 +123%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 +$238 +193%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 +$88 +58%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +106%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$10 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +164%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +116%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $11 −$7 -65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $357 +$768 +215%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$54 +116%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 23m
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 29m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 10¢ $306 30m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $1,751 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1,426 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $16 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $154 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $99 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $74 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $190 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $96 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $0 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $265 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,607 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $407 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,010 19h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 20h
Jordan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.50 (match) · 170 history records