Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb2a8…c5b9 weather 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$529 (+3%) realized +$516 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%130W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$213
14 days+$216
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$374
crypto 1% −$19
world 0% −$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +21.5% +9.9% 55% 41% +5.0%
≤30d 61 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 38% -11.9%
≤90d 147 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 38% -7.5%
all 244 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 34% -7.8%
10% -33.7% 21% -16.7%
15% -40.1% 13% -24.7%
20% -46.0% 10% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$516
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses130 / 114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage138d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? No 91¢ 98¢ $165 $178 +$13 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $38 +$9 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$108 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $260 +$17 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 22 $36 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$49 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $69 −$67 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $133 +$20 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $57 +$63 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$90 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $171 −$17 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $64 +$76 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$79 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $362 +$46 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 +$65 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 07 $419 −$419 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $38 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $68 +$28 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $44 −$40 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $87 −$51 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $568 +$255 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $41 −$37 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $240 +$78 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $64 +$26 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 03 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $217 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $295 +$67 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $233 +$33 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $93 +$223 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $206 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $74 −$47 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $266 +$156 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $168 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 70¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $111 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 87¢ $56 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $277 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $86 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $174 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 43¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $151 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.11 · official $178.11 (match) · 1321 history records