Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb2ab…534d other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$188
other 35% −$107
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 25% -28.9%
≤30d 4 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 25% -28.9%
≤90d 4 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 25% -28.9%
all 4 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 25% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 25% -28.9%
10% -38.2% 25% -35.7%
15% -44.2% 25% -41.9%
20% -49.7% 25% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$146 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $245 −$188 -77%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $859 −$188 -22%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $84 −$63 -75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $189 +$144 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 10m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $112 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $113 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $84 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $200 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 3h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 39¢ $96 5h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $96 6h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $97 6h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $97 6h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $177 8h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $177 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $189 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $190 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $385 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records