Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2b4…70ea sports 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$599 (+24%) realized +$659 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%58W / 61L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$6
14 days+$290
30 days+$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$653
other 10% −$131
crypto 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.6% +0.9% 33% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 47 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 51% +20.0%
≤90d 119 +7.2% -3.0% 49% 48% +12.6%
all 119 +7.2% -3.0% 49% 48% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 48% +12.6%
10% -12.3% 47% +1.8%
15% -20.8% 45% -8.0%
20% -28.5% 37% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$659
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses58 / 61
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage67d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 55¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $45 −$2 -6%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 27 $31 +$27 +89%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $16 +$38 +233%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $52 −$29 -55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $156 −$156 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $51 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$148 +146%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $66 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $55 +$55 +101%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 +$99 +250%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 +$7 +29%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $64 +$56 +89%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $62 +$48 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $61 +$86 +141%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$88 +87%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$49 +82%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3 −$2 -82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $102 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $102 +$68 +66%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $22 +$24 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $20 +$9 +43%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $13 −$1 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $18 +$17 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $25 +$20 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $6 +$7 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $7 −$6 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 31 $25 +$23 +90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $25 +$26 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 31 $7 −$7 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 May 31 $20 +$13 +64%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -19%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $52 +$50 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 May 28 $25 +$7 +29%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 May 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 May 26 $22 −$22 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 43¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 55¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 39¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 44¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 44¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 53¢ $16 20h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 53¢ $3 20h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 53¢ $4 20h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 53¢ $8 20h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 22¢ $24 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 30¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 30¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $156 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL Walczaki 50¢ $49 3d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 50¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $69 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 62¢ $80 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $14 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 52¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 52¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $55 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 248 history records