Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2b4…512d crypto 209 markets active 9h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (683 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,142 (+15%) realized +$2,154 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%96W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day683.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$980
other 2% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (683 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 205 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 44% -16.3%
≤90d 205 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 44% -16.3%
all 205 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover683.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 44% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 42% -24.3%
15% -28.6% 40% -31.6%
20% -35.6% 39% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$61 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$2,154
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses96 / 109
Open positions19
Markets (closed)205 / 209
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day683.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-17%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+76%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 76¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $89 +$56 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$139 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$84 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$62 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$72 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$56 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$19 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $98 −$81 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $114 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $66 +$101 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $86 +$70 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$82 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$100 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$83 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$91 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 24h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.84 · official $248.84 (match) · 3500 history records