Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2b5…d336 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
politics 22% $0
economics 16% −$1
tech 7% −$3
other 6% +$1
crypto 6% −$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 8% -9.5%
all 40 +0.5% -9.1% 28% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -10.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.8%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage317d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $83 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 13 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 13 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 09 $11 −$2 -14%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +8%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 08 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 07 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 06 $53 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $9 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $35 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $35 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 138 history records