Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2b6…aceb sports 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$48 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$257
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$72
other 16% −$53
culture 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -53.3% -57.7% 40% 30% -24.7%
≤90d 14 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 43% -7.6%
all 14 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 43% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 43% -7.6%
10% -44.4% 21% -16.4%
15% -49.8% 7% -24.5%
20% -54.7% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$61 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage46d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 68¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 54¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $607 +$138 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $126 +$21 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $308 −$304 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $75 −$54 -72%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 04 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $25 $0 -2%
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez May 03 $541 +$99 +18%
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani May 03 $673 +$141 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 54¢ $25 5d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 68¢ $50 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 91¢ $301 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 54¢ $101 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 24¢ $229 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $102 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $101 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 85¢ $126 7d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 8d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 8d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 8d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 79¢ $25 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $10 8d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 70¢ $25 9d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 80¢ $25 9d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 97¢ $200 9d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Hall 41¢ $10 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $207 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $102 11d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr SELL No 100¢ $147 49d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 41¢ $24 50d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 50d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 89¢ $44 50d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 89¢ $44 50d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 80¢ $101 50d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 50d
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez BUY Benavidez 84¢ $100 50d
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani BUY Inoue 85¢ $8 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.00 · official $72.00 (match) · 45 history records