Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2b7…37d5 crypto 923 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,865 (-6%) realized −$2,806 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%397W / 526L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$325
14 days−$325
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,225
other 23% +$791
sports 19% −$2,258
world 3% −$107
economics 1% +$9
finance 0% −$25
politics 0% −$41
culture 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 55% -47.1%
≤30d 20 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 55% -47.1%
≤90d 183 -20.4% -28.0% 35% 34% -35.4%
all 923 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 38% -16.3%
10% -20.9% 36% -24.3%
15% -28.6% 34% -31.6%
20% -35.6% 30% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$36 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,806
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses397 / 526
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)923 / 923
History coverage262d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 923 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $328 −$328 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$58 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$39 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $34 +$39 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$15 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$32 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $23 −$23 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $17 +$6 +34%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $91 +$8 +9%
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $51 +$40 +79%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 May 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $157 −$150 -96%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $86 −$84 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $23 +$27 +118%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $36 +$94 +262%
Will CD Cobresal vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? May 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 May 17 $49 +$52 +107%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $46 +$86 +188%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor end in a draw? May 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 May 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $35 +$25 +71%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 17 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 16 $150 −$145 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 May 16 $59 −$58 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 16 $20 +$32 +157%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 May 16 $15 +$21 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 1h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $23 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 1732 history records