Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2b9…86b4 world 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$111 (-2%) realized −$116 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%106W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$10
14 days−$30
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$130
politics 18% −$25
world 17% −$9
other 6% +$13
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 42% -12.0%
≤30d 146 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 37% -13.7%
≤90d 204 -10.3% -18.9% 45% 34% -21.5%
all 236 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 32% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 32% -12.1%
10% -24.0% 23% -20.5%
15% -31.4% 18% -28.2%
20% -38.1% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses106 / 130
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions62
Markets (closed)236 / 298
History coverage537d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 70¢ 90¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+29%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 58¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-16%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 84¢ $14 $18 +$5 (+35%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 78¢ 91¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 74¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+34%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 63¢ 68¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 76¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +76%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +135%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +133%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $64 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 4m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $1 4m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $1 16m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 16m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $2 27m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 49m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 9h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 21h
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes $1 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.37 · official $308.03 (match) · 1103 history records