Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb2ba…e778 crypto 1347 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (316 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,842 (+9%) realized +$1,842 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%751W / 803L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day315.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,568
7 days−$504
14 days−$109
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (316 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1394 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 45% -12.1%
≤30d 1554 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 46% -10.0%
≤90d 1554 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 46% -10.0%
all 1554 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 46% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover315.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 46% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 43% -18.6%
15% -31.9% 40% -26.5%
20% -38.6% 34% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$1,842
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses751 / 803
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1554 / 1347
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day315.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 69¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.35 (match) · 3500 history records