Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2bc…4738 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$17
other 18% +$1
finance 8% $0
politics 7% −$12
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 10 -4.1% -13.2% 30% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 13 -3.1% -12.3% 31% 0% -13.0%
all 25 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 4% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 4% -14.0%
10% -22.8% 0% -22.2%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.7%
20% -37.1% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage469d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $73 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $21 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $15 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $48 −$18 -36%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 21? Mar 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $2 $0 -24%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $16 $0 +3%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $18 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $13 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $7 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $8 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $48 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.06 · official $27.06 (match) · 79 history records