Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2c3…868c crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$40 (-2%) realized +$30 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$209
sports 17% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -62.6% -66.2% 22% 22% -23.7%
≤30d 10 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 20% -30.6%
≤90d 25 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 56% -21.7%
all 25 +0.2% -9.4% 56% 56% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 56% -21.7%
10% -18.1% 56% -29.2%
15% -26.0% 52% -36.1%
20% -33.2% 32% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$73 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage54d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Up 33¢ 10¢ $98 $28 −$70 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $184 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $383 +$154 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $414 +$130 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $111 −$39 -35%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 10.5 Total Cor May 24 $140 −$137 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 28 $17 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 28 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 28 $14 +$24 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 28 $11 +$20 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 28 $31 +$19 +60%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $20 +$10 +49%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $97 −$95 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $105 +$90 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 28 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 28 $12 +$12 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 28 $49 +$25 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $32 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 28 $17 +$15 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $92 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $184 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $345 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $200 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.28 · official $28.28 (match) · 72 history records