Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb2c4…97e3 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$132 (+19%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$126
other 16% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +34.8% +22.0% 59% 53% +2.4%
≤30d 17 +34.8% +22.0% 59% 53% +2.4%
≤90d 17 +34.8% +22.0% 59% 53% +2.4%
all 17 +34.8% +22.0% 59% 53% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.0% 53% +2.4%
10% +10.3% 47% -7.4%
15% -0.4% 41% -16.4%
20% -10.1% 41% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $188 −$35 -19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 +$44 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$27 -51%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $17 −$2 -12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $59 +$41 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +95%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $64 −$9 -15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$10 +19%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 88¢ $105 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $89 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $41 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $7 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $26 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $66 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $53 18h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $15 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $17 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $0 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $9 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $19 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $21 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $54 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $64 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records