Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2c4…c110 other 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$275 (+1%) realized +$270 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%266W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$97
14 days+$204
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$452
sports 32% −$180
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 128 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 2% -8.4%
≤90d 269 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.0%
all 269 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$149 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses266 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)269 / 271
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$188
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 98¢ 100¢ $197 $201 +$4 (+2%)
James Rodríguez: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals Jun 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Nuno Mendes: 2+ goals Jun 17 $599 +$6 +1%
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals Jun 17 $798 +$8 +1%
Christoph Baumgartner: 1+ goals Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goals Jun 17 $597 +$6 +1%
Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ goals Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Thiago Almada: 3+ goals Jun 17 $184 +$2 +1%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals Jun 16 $76 +$1 +1%
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals Jun 16 $78 +$1 +1%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $329 +$3 +1%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals Jun 15 $479 +$5 +1%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 14 $798 +$8 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $597 +$6 +1%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals Jun 14 $192 +$2 +1%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ goals Jun 14 $194 +$2 +1%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 14 $199 +$2 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $199 +$2 +1%
Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals Jun 13 $331 +$3 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rock LFO vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Edin Džeko: 3+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Alphonso Davies: 3+ goals Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $598 +$6 +1%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
César Huerta: 3+ goals Jun 11 $428 +$4 +1%
Alexis Vega: 3+ goals Jun 11 $599 +$6 +1%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will Norrby IF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $24 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-12.5) vs Leo Team (+12.5) Jun 10 $398 +$4 +1%
Game Handicap: EVOS (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 10 $597 +$6 +1%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 10 $599 +$6 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $399 +$4 +1%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 08 $213 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $190 +$2 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $194 +$7 +4%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Puck be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $599 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
James Rodríguez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $198 51m
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 98¢ $197 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $101 3h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $95 4h
Nuno Mendes: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $12 12h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $188 16h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 16h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 17h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $96 19h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $199 19h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $200 19h
Nuno Mendes: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $195 19h
Nuno Mendes: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $200 19h
Nuno Mendes: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $200 19h
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $199 21h
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $199 21h
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $199 21h
Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $198 22h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $98 25h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $100 25h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 26h
Thiago Almada: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $184 26h
Christoph Baumgartner: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $198 28h
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $78 30h
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 33h
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 33h
Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $76 33h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $130 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.11 · official $400.11 (match) · 3500 history records