Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb2ca…3f1b world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-3%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$10
14 days−$46
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$7
sports 32% −$69
other 27% −$45
politics 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 25% -5.3%
≤30d 12 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 8% -12.8%
≤90d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 6% -12.4%
all 18 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 6% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 6% -12.4%
10% -30.8% 0% -20.8%
15% -37.5% 0% -28.5%
20% -43.6% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage78d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 23 $52 +$3 +6%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $57 +$8 +14%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) Jun 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Spread: SD Eibar (-1.5) Jun 01 $471 +$29 +6%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? May 31 $468 $0 +0%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5) May 31 $433 +$37 +8%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? May 30 $484 −$48 -10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $5 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 22 $142 $0 +0%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Apr 26 $25 $0 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 19 $419 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Apr 09 $299 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $34 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes $21 3h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes $20 3h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $21 4h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $20 4h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $27 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $27 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $26 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $33 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes $32 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $28 2d
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes $29 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $31 13d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $1 13d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $29 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $27 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $29 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $26 13d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $24 13d
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) BUY Northern Ireland $26 21d
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5) BUY Northern Ireland $28 21d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? SELL Yes $30 21d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? SELL Yes $32 21d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? BUY Yes $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records