Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb2cb…d010 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 12% +$13
crypto 8% +$1
finance 5% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 12% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +18.4% +7.2% 44% 3% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 3% -7.6%
10% -3.1% 3% -16.5%
15% -12.5% 3% -24.5%
20% -21.0% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.56 per $1 lost it wins $5.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage466d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $35 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Dec 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 06 $3 $0 +6%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 28 $11 $0 -2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $2 +$15 +737%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 46h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $37 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $2 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $9 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $27 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $38 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records