Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2ce…fc0a other 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-18%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1
sports 14% −$2
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -15.3%
≤30d 5 -20.9% -28.5% 20% 20% -15.5%
≤90d 8 -36.2% -42.3% 25% 25% -32.3%
all 15 -39.6% -45.3% 27% 27% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 27% -30.3%
10% -50.6% 20% -37.0%
15% -55.3% 20% -43.1%
20% -59.7% 20% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage148d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Mar 23 $1 $0 +15%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $2 +$1 +70%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Nets Feb 08 $1 $0 -32%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $2 +$1 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 32 history records