Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2ce…dd2b other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+23%) realized +$161 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$129
sports 19% −$71
politics 10% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +0.5%
≤30d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +0.5%
≤90d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +0.5%
all 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 75% +0.5%
10% -10.2% 50% -9.1%
15% -18.8% 50% -17.9%
20% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$71 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $58 $31 −$26 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 17 $110 −$71 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $223 +$45 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $190 +$83 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 32m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 32m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 32m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 33m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 33m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 33m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 33m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 33m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 33m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 34m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 34m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 34m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 34m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 35m
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 35m
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.50 · official $31.50 (match) · 35 history records