Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2d1…4965 weather 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%321W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$67
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 48 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 183 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.0%
all 322 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.82 per $1 lost it wins $7.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses321 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)322 / 324
History coverage121d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 25? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 24? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 19? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 5? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.75 · official $54.75 (match) · 696 history records