Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb2d9…26a2 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$82 (+0%) realized +$87 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 62L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$669per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$514est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$816
14 days−$1,649
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$5,462
other 44% +$1,338
world 9% +$3,721
crypto 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.8% +8.4% 62% 62% +10.7%
≤30d 24 +3.7% -6.1% 54% 54% -10.5%
≤90d 95 -16.8% -24.8% 46% 46% -15.3%
all 129 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 51% -9.9%
10% -23.4% 44% -18.5%
15% -30.8% 39% -26.4%
20% -37.6% 29% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$901) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$403 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$514
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 137
History coverage175d
Avg bet$669
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $537 $532 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $203 +$222 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,192 +$172 +14%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,008 +$298 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $406 −$402 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $254 +$370 +145%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $285 +$455 +160%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $123 −$36 -30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $57 −$56 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $994 −$980 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $266 −$262 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $604 −$17 -3%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $901 +$521 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$467 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $463 +$458 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,571 −$1,560 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $303 +$282 +93%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,206 −$41 -3%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $366 +$380 +104%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,608 +$318 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,408 +$177 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$351 +35%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $595 −$584 -98%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to Score May 17 $4,134 −$3,683 -89%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,322 +$975 +74%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $216 −$211 -98%
Gladiators Trier vs. Rostock Seawolves May 14 $4,044 −$4,000 -99%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $2,999 +$1,259 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,791 +$1,207 +67%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4,991 −$1,404 -28%
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score May 10 $1,977 +$1,124 +57%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to Score May 10 $4,026 −$1,994 -50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3,332 +$725 +22%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $2,123 +$1,159 +55%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $4,373 −$2,193 -50%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $3,840 +$419 +11%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 02 $2,823 +$1,059 +38%
Mitteldeutscher BC vs. Wuerzburg Apr 26 $1,048 −$1,039 -99%
SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $2,520 +$1,429 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,751 +$775 +44%
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $1,152 +$600 +52%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $688 +$468 +68%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $1,916 −$1,212 -63%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $1,455 +$476 +33%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $768 +$687 +89%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 +$253 +126%
Basketball Loewen Braunschweig vs. Mitteldeutscher BC Apr 19 $185 +$131 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $545 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 21h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Algeria vs. Austria: Bo BUY 28¢ $250 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,364 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,192 42h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,306 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both BUY 26¢ $274 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $406 4d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both BUY 17¢ $205 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 47¢ $203 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $624 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $254 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 49¢ $744 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 BUY 38¢ $285 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY $11 10d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $11 10d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $12 10d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $10 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 10d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $55 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $994 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $266 11d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $103 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $588 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.74 · official $531.74 (match) · 351 history records