Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2db…140a other 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+2%) realized −$26 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%95W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$445
14 days−$365
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$154
economics 14% +$69
world 11% −$70
politics 11% −$66
tech 8% −$55
sports 4% +$1
finance 2% +$24
weather 2% +$6
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -64.5% -67.9% 19% 15% -62.0%
≤30d 155 -26.1% -33.2% 43% 29% -23.8%
≤90d 198 -16.2% -24.2% 48% 32% -11.3%
all 198 -16.2% -24.2% 48% 32% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 32% -11.3%
10% -31.4% 23% -19.8%
15% -38.0% 19% -27.5%
20% -44.1% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses95 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions76
Markets (closed)198 / 274
History coverage51d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 62¢ $26 $50 +$24 (+94%)
Will USD fall to 16,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+13%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 3¢ $27 $43 +$16 (+61%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 68¢ 95¢ $31 $43 +$12 (+40%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $3 $36 +$33 (+1109%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 81¢ $12 $32 +$20 (+161%)
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in June? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $22 $30 +$9 (+40%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 64¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+33%)
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 34¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 91¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $20 $23 +$4 (+18%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 48¢ 89¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+85%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 62¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 82¢ 72¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 42¢ $24 $17 −$7 (-29%)
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 76¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 13¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+150%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$7 +291%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 -5%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 +$11 +64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 13 $37 +$6 +16%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +122%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.5%? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.5% and 2 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? Jun 13 $0 $0 +66%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.7M and 6.8M in April? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 90¢ $3 8m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 89¢ $4 10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 87¢ $6 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 85¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 86¢ $6 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $3 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $9 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $2 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $7 40h
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $5 40h
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? SELL No 70¢ $7 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $8 40h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $7 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 2d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 25¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $9 2d
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $3 2d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $20 2d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $29 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 35¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.90 · official $770.91 (match) · 755 history records