Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2dc…b433 world 177 markets active 1d ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,354 (+20%) realized +$2,084 · open +$270
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%83W / 58L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$269
14 days−$388
30 days+$2,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2,415
other 28% −$100
politics 16% +$383
crypto 2% −$81
weather 1% −$167
tech 1% −$93
sports 1% −$3
finance 0% −$15
economics 0% −$50
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.9% -31.2% 41% 35% -32.3%
≤30d 104 -11.0% -19.4% 54% 39% +20.2%
≤90d 141 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 38% +10.1%
all 141 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 38% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 38% +10.1%
10% -25.4% 27% -0.4%
15% -32.6% 17% -10.1%
20% -39.2% 10% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$34 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$2,438
Realized+$2,084
Unrealized+$270
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses83 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions32
Markets (closed)141 / 177
History coverage85d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Yes 43¢ 76¢ $304 $541 +$237 (+78%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 77¢ 92¢ $388 $466 +$79 (+20%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 57¢ 100¢ $81 $141 +$60 (+75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $92 $124 +$32 (+35%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $60 $84 +$24 (+40%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 38¢ 49¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 81¢ 83¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 75¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 56¢ 78¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 85¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 55¢ 32¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 81¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 77¢ 81¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $184 +$55 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $280 −$250 -89%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$6 -31%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -54%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $117 −$10 -8%
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 −$19 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -97%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +23%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $116 +$43 +37%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$13 +25%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 08 $61 −$37 -60%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $91 +$53 +59%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $94 −$43 -45%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 04 $15 −$14 -89%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $76 +$30 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $45 +$14 +32%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 04 $27 +$11 +41%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 03 $62 −$2 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $40 +$7 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $10 +$8 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $160 +$76 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $165 +$127 +77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $20 +$5 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $45 +$32 +70%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $350 +$76 +22%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $30 29h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $14 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $107 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $107 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $40 2d
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $27 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 91¢ $27 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $18 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 3d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $22 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 68¢ $20 3d
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $20 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $35 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $20 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $20 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $7 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 13¢ $12 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND BUY $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,437.79 · official $2,437.79 (match) · 551 history records