Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2df…bf50 crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-15%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -30.5% -37.1% 35% 33% -23.9%
≤30d 66 -30.5% -37.1% 35% 33% -23.9%
≤90d 66 -30.5% -37.1% 35% 33% -23.9%
all 66 -30.5% -37.1% 35% 33% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 33% -23.9%
10% -43.1% 32% -31.2%
15% -48.6% 27% -37.9%
20% -53.6% 24% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records