Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2df…5a83 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$252 (-2%) realized −$230 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%48W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$218
crypto 38% −$126
world 16% +$46
sports 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +287.7% +250.8% 67% 67% -49.7%
≤90d 3 +287.7% +250.8% 67% 67% -49.7%
all 68 +4.5% -5.4% 71% 25% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 25% -12.8%
10% -14.5% 18% -21.1%
15% -22.8% 12% -28.7%
20% -30.3% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$31 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$5,228
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses48 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage171d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5,176 $5,156 −$20 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $79 +$27 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $271 −$192 -71%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$9 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 14 $215 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 14 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 14 $207 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 14 $198 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 14 $192 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 14 $208 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 14 $194 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 14 $202 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 14 $218 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 14 $100 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $242 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $5 +$7 +138%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $213 +$24 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $211 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 12 $202 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $200 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $189 +$11 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $188 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $185 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $168 +$1 +1%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 09 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $20 +$6 +32%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $162 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $163 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 02 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 02 $156 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 02 $153 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $1 +$2 +170%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $149 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Feb 01 $1 +$1 +108%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $143 +$6 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 30 $138 +$4 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $136 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $129 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 24 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 48m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4,954 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $292 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $79 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $79 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $171 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $225 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $225 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $215 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $215 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $213 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $213 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $207 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $198 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $192 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $212 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $208 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $207 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $185 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,227.73 · official $5,227.73 (match) · 166 history records