Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb2e2…12dc crypto 651 markets active 19h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,821 (+30%) realized +$1,821 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%370W / 281L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day96.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$147
14 days−$225
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 50% -18.5%
≤30d 594 +5.1% -5.0% 56% 52% -6.6%
≤90d 651 +7.0% -3.2% 57% 53% -2.0%
all 651 +7.0% -3.2% 57% 53% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 53% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 49% -11.4%
15% -20.9% 43% -20.0%
20% -28.7% 37% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses370 / 281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)651 / 651
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day96.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 651 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records