Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2e2…c198 crypto 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%52W / 38L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$32
other 18% −$2
economics 10% −$1
politics 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 28 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 90 +0.3% -9.2% 58% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses52 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage229d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 11? Jun 24 $128 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 28? Jun 11 $128 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 21? May 28 $128 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on April 30? May 14 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $128 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $128 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? Apr 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? Apr 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $128 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $128 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 26? Mar 28 $128 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026? Mar 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 11 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8? Mar 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 9? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $127 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $128 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $128 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 99¢ $127 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $127 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $128 26d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $128 26d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $128 33d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $128 33d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $128 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $128 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $127 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $128 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $128 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $128 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $128 57d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $127 57d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $128 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $128 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $128 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $128 63d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $128 63d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $128 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 77d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $128 77d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $128 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.88 · official $127.75 (match) · 210 history records