Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2e2…54d3 politics 174 markets active 9h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,912 (+1%) realized +$1,912 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 135L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,498per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$27
14 days−$55
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$36
politics 41% −$135
sports 9% +$2,015
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$6
world 1% −$1
tech 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 +8.3% -2.1% 15% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 102 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 4% -9.2%
all 174 +3.4% -6.5% 22% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 11% -8.9%
10% -15.4% 11% -17.6%
15% -23.6% 10% -25.6%
20% -31.1% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,763) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$7 · ×9.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,912
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,498
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $8,557 −$11 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $301 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $3,098 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $3,052 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,997 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,498 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,103 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,309 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,165 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,290 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7,495 −$8 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $247 +$4 +2%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,860 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9,559 −$10 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,000 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,150 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,214 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $79 +$74 +93%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,928 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,711 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $847 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $57 +$56 +97%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $374 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,640 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $610 −$1 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $919 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $809 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 8h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 10h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $301 11h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $301 13h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $404 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $405 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $434 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $435 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $630 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $631 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $441 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $442 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $518 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $519 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $334 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $334 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,023 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,160 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,139 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,140 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 623 history records