Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2e3…e0e9 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$273 (-10%) realized −$272 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$81
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$122
sports 41% −$444
crypto 6% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -17.2% -25.1% 23% 23% -15.7%
≤30d 36 -16.3% -24.3% 31% 25% -13.6%
≤90d 36 -16.3% -24.3% 31% 25% -13.6%
all 37 -18.5% -26.3% 30% 24% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 24% -17.0%
10% -33.4% 24% -25.0%
15% -39.8% 24% -32.2%
20% -45.7% 16% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$46 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage234d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$80 +158%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$57 +276%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$19 -93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$229 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 +$122 +80%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $587 +$244 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 10h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $101 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $51 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $41 12h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 44¢ $41 12h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on BUY 9¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 33h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 38¢ $51 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 37h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 41¢ $20 38h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.68 · official $48.68 (match) · 59 history records