Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb2e4…b7f1
weather · 1242 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$7
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 1242
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1137.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 7 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? No 62¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? No 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+298%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? No 72¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+133%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 62¢ 81¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? No 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 31¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 73¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+283%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? No $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 9? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? No 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? No 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 12 $1 $0 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 81% $0
other 8% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 3m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $11 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 16¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 79¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 13¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $94 28m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 36m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 36m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 56% 50% +5.5%
≤30d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 56% 50% +5.5%
≤90d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 56% 50% +5.5%
all 16 +5.9% -4.2% 56% 50% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1137.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 50% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 50% -4.6%
15% -21.7% 44% -13.8%
20% -29.4% 31% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.77 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records