Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2e8…9b20 crypto 473 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,126 (+3%) realized +$1,126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%451W / 22L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$612
14 days+$1,005
30 days+$1,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,005
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +4.6% -5.4% 99% 6% -5.3%
≤30d 473 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 8% -7.0%
≤90d 473 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 8% -7.0%
all 473 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 8% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 8% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -15.9%
15% -24.6% 0% -24.1%
20% -32.0% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$58 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$1,126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses451 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)473 / 473
History coverage13d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 473 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $130 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $78 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $151 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $196 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $174 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $139 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $182 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $112 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $124 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $110 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $121 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $132 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $174 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $160 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $192 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $122 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $180 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $157 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $130 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $79 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $119 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $78 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $160 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $113 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $151 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $196 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $174 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $79 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $48 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $191 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $139 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.75 · official $155.75 (match) · 1167 history records