Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2eb…271d world 75 markets active 20h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 37L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$23
14 days+$24
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$8
world 29% +$22
economics 12% +$1
other 10% −$2
tech 3% +$7
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$2
weather 1% +$6
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 21 +7.9% -2.4% 48% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 35 +26.0% +14.0% 46% 6% -9.2%
all 75 +13.1% +2.4% 51% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 7% -9.1%
10% -7.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -16.4% 4% -25.8%
20% -24.6% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage481d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $106 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $215 +$15 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $94 +$6 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $95 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $93 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $193 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $90 −$4 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $81 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $119 +$5 +4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $71 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $725 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $645 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $644 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $37 −$2 -5%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 30 $43 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 30 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 22? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 21 $7 $0 +5%
Will 'LEveL' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $14 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $14 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $99 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $100 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $94 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $95 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $95 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $79 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $93 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $87 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $93 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records