Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb2eb…b2cf crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-8%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$126
politics 12% −$5
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.5% -18.2% 36% 36% -8.7%
≤30d 38 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 34% -22.3%
≤90d 38 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 34% -22.3%
all 38 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 34% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 34% -22.3%
10% -29.0% 32% -29.7%
15% -35.9% 32% -36.5%
20% -42.2% 26% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$18 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$20 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$27 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$22 +214%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $104 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$41 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$80 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records