Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2ed…2a85 sports 870 markets active 14h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,120 (+2%) realized +$3,030 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%554W / 312L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1,147est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$867
14 days−$1,104
30 days−$3,679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$82
other 7% +$33
crypto 2% +$678
world 2% +$866
finance 1% −$343
culture 0% +$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 55% -14.8%
≤30d 312 -6.8% -15.7% 57% 53% -15.2%
≤90d 662 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 57% -11.1%
all 866 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 58% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 58% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 48% -17.6%
15% -24.0% 36% -25.6%
20% -31.5% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$200 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$832
Realized+$3,030
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses554 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,147
Open positions4
Markets (closed)866 / 870
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$238
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $190 $310 +$120 (+63%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 72¢ $282 $214 −$68 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 90¢ $158 $181 +$23 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 75¢ 84¢ $112 $126 +$14 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $179 +$21 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $333 −$332 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $392 +$158 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $84 +$16 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $311 +$239 +77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $129 +$121 +93%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 18 $140 −$113 -80%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $116 +$112 +97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $143 +$57 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $147 +$53 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $167 +$33 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $159 +$76 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $143 −$143 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $194 −$194 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $344 −$344 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $187 −$187 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $295 −$295 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $532 −$297 -56%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $353 −$353 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $227 −$227 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $866 −$532 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 +$125 +165%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$73 +57%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $142 +$108 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $149 +$51 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $202 +$343 +169%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $119 +$131 +109%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$24 -71%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $161 +$47 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $66 +$34 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 39¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 39¢ $51 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 39¢ $19 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 39¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 39¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $18 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $63 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $14 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $21 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 47¢ $94 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $139 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $159 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 84¢ $84 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $114 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 38h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 36¢ $31 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 36¢ $59 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $129 40h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $68 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 76¢ $228 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $116 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $158 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $163 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $233 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.65 · official $831.39 (match) · 3500 history records