Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2ed…4418 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,653 (+11%) realized +$1,817 · open −$164
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$3,688
14 days+$3,100
30 days+$2,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$3,737
other 26% −$1,499
politics 13% −$804
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +39.2% +26.0% 53% 53% +29.7%
≤30d 19 +27.6% +15.5% 53% 53% +12.6%
≤90d 25 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% +1.1%
all 25 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 44% +1.1%
10% -13.9% 44% -8.6%
15% -22.3% 44% -17.4%
20% -29.9% 40% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$613) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$748 vs −$473 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,728
Realized+$1,817
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions8
Markets (closed)25 / 33
History coverage75d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $650 $636 −$14 (-2%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 46¢ 40¢ $437 $376 −$61 (-14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $250 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $155 $152 −$3 (-2%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $85 −$65 (-43%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $606 −$600 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $812 +$819 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $409 +$1,256 +307%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $335 −$327 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $457 +$284 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 15 $1,906 −$798 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $613 +$1,530 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $304 +$296 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $608 +$503 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $660 +$1,492 +226%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 06 $600 −$588 -98%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) Jun 03 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Panthers vs. Penguins Jun 03 $1 $0 +47%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 03 $576 +$514 +89%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $952 +$997 +105%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $175 −$171 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $249 −$244 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $305 21m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 48¢ $139 25m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 29m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $144 30m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $113 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $508 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $606 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,631 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,665 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $205 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $407 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $406 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $406 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $409 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $406 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 26¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 54¢ $406 3d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 21¢ $1,108 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $307 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $608 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $613 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,727.67 · official $1,727.67 (match) · 140 history records