Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb2ee…addb crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-1%) realized −$73 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%46W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$89
other 24% +$5
politics 16% −$11
tech 3% +$18
culture 3% +$1
finance 2% +$1
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 50 -5.3% -14.3% 92% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -10.3%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses46 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage541d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? Jun 15 $230 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 31? Jun 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 20? May 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on May 20? May 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 25? May 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 27? May 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 07 $153 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 24 $337 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Apr 11 $235 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 15 $333 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 09 $287 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 07 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 07 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 26 $270 +$17 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 2? Dec 21 $325 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 18? Dec 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,900 on November 18? Dec 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? Dec 01 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on November 3? Nov 17 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Nov 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Nov 03 $255 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? Oct 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in September? Oct 16 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $240 on September 5? Sep 28 $300 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 05 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22? Sep 05 $150 $0 +0%
Solana above $160 on August 11? Aug 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? Aug 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 25 $333 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jul 10 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 17 $220 +$1 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 22 $266 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 22 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 22 $150 +$1 +0%
Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 24 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday? Mar 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before March? Mar 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Mar 02 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 05 $372 −$3 -1%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Feb 05 $100 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Jan 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $230 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $151 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $150 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $124 23d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $80 34d
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $140 34d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, BUY No 100¢ $110 45d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 BUY No 100¢ $105 45d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $120 45d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 58d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $55 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $153 58d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April BUY No 100¢ $337 71d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 99¢ $235 98d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $333 104d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $50 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $287 134d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $280 146d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $287 146d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 166d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $270 166d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $300 181d
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 2? BUY No 100¢ $325 202d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,900 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $110 215d
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $70 215d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $138 215d
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on November 3? BUY No 100¢ $290 230d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.84 · official $308.84 (match) · 104 history records